If Javier received the visit of a pollster from the National Institute of statistics (INE) tomorrow and reply to the questionnaire, it would be considered an unemployed person. This week, this 37-year-old has not worked an hour, looking for a job - not only is waiting for you - and is willing to join a job in the next two weeks. Without a doubt, in the survey of active population (EPA) form part of those nearly six million unemployed people there are in Spain even though it is not registered as unemployed by the public employment service. On the other hand, the President of the CEOE employers, Juan Rosell, don't see it as well. "The EPA says there are six million unemployed and the record that there are five." I think me five million,"said Rosell.
As Javier S. l., giving only the initials of their surnames as trade, there are at least one million unemployed persons who are not registered with the Ministry of employment. Why? "Getting the unemployed [April 2012] at the Office told me I have no right to benefit", explains Javier, "so I do not renew the demand". Past three months disappeared from the record.
The case of Javier is not isolated. "There are many people who do not register because they will not receive benefits and allowances", argues Marcel Jansen, Professor of Economics at the Complutense University. This is a phenomenon that occurs primarily among immigrants: public services were non-Spanish unemployed 612.000 last December, the EPA emerging 1.2 million.
There are other causes that explain this difference, which has widened in the crisis. The registered unemployment is elaborated in accordance with criteria laid down in a decree of 1985 which excludes, among others, students seeking employment, the unemployed to only accept jobs with a working week of more than 20 hours and more than three months in duration and to the beneficiaries of the agrarian of Andalucía and Extremadura subsidy (137.333 in December). On the other hand, includes the retirees that charge provision, a collective that EPA is considered inactive.
Rosell says that he is "happy to open discussions", but nobody is home to doubts among economists, sociologists and statisticians of data are the most reliable to analyse the labour market. Other forms, there is no debate.
There are many people who do not register because they will not receive benefits and allowances
José Ignacio Pérez Infante was part of the team of the Ministry of labour, Joaquín Almunia that 28 years ago wrote that Decree directing. Infante Perez considered deprecated this rule: "The labour market has something changed since then". Then it has integrated the Working Group of short-term statistics of the labour market of the higher statistical Council. You know both sources with depth. It has no doubt that the best instrument of analysis "at the aggregate level": the EPA.
Criticisms of the statistics are cyclical. They arrive when it starts a crisis and unemployment rises
"The records give rights and involve obligations. To give people rights it makes movements to enjoy them", explains Luis Garrido, Professor of social structure and one of the greatest scholars of the EPA,"on the other hand, the survey is acts more freely". Carlos García Serrano, Professor of Economics at the University of Alcalá, abounds: "Be registered more responsive to incentives and disincentives".
Garrido admits that that EPA perhaps has a certain bias in detecting stand upward, but that, in his opinion, not discredit what he considers "a statistical treasure" made regularly since 1976 whose methodology has been adapted several times to international requirements and sociological changes.
Share his thoughts Octavio Granado, former Secretary of State of Social Security and sociologist. It underscores the greater validity of the EPA against the registered unemployment to know what is happening in the labor market, although his favorite tool, above all, is the affiliation to the Institute for public. Of course, this only shows one side of the coin, the employment. For which Granado says: "there are things that need to be improved from the EPA. For example, watch what happens when called by phone and can not find someone".
For his part, Perez Infante, economists the crisis, does not believe that EPA sobredimensione unemployment: "considering up to busy to who has worked only one hour, whatever it is, in the week prior to the interview".
To underline the statistical validity of this survey, Josep Oliver, Professor of Economics, performs several calculations quickly: "affiliation to Social Security and the EPA occupation have been parallel in recent years. And the current number of unemployed corresponds to the stock at the beginning of the crisis, most destroyed employment and population active until 2008 ".
In one of the centers that the INE has in Madrid, last July an interviews team leader explained how EPA field work is done. It counted as the first interview to a citizen in person and how becomes it to interview for seven consecutive quarters. The questionnaire can have over 100 questions and the software is ready to detect contradictions in the answers and instantly tell the pollster. And so each quarter to 65,000 participants, is the continuous survey of larger size in Spain. Its margin of error in the large data ranges from 0.21% to the active population and 3.7% of the unemployed persons seeking their first job. For the unemployed in general, 1.04%.
On this basis, Raymond Torres, director of the Institute of Labour Studies of the ILO, organism that has defined what is an unemployed person and what is a busy, says: "Is a tool that conforms to international standards, as well as the methodology". Torres remembers, as well as the INE and Almunia, that the EPA is fully certified with the European parameters that Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the EU.
"Criticism of the statistics are cyclical. When you start a crisis and climbing unemployment, come doubts,"says García Serrano. The sociologist Luis Garrido also regretted it: "Attack without basis is a mistake" and says claims responsibility who is in charge of the business.
Jansen, Fedea gives the most forceful response to Rosell. "One hopes the President of employers who do not put in doubt the statistics without arguments. It does a disservice to the discussion of their proposals".
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