It has been repeated thousands of times since the crisis began: the Spanish public debt in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) is below the European average and far away from other serious countries such as Germany. But the Spanish position in the ranking of the liability has not stopped climbing positions compared to the rest of the eurozone and it is perfectly plausible that reach or even exceed that average. Between the third quarter of 2011 and the same period in 2012, last closed comparable data, Spain is the third country that most increased their debt (10.7 percentage points of GDP), only surpassed by two rescued by the EU countries: Cyprus (17.4 percent) and Ireland (13.4 points), according to the European Statistical Office (Eurostat).
With the latest December data, the increase in Spain reaches the almost 15 percentage points (69.3% from 2011 to 84% 2012), which makes it possible to overcome Ireland depending on their data for the fourth quarter.
Spain is on track to exceed the European average debt in a few years"Not we can't compare with the average European in debt because endurable liabilities to a country level is not the same as the other, varies according to the characteristics of its economy, and Spain, by its features, must be below the average", warns Javier Andrés, Professor of applied economics at the University of Valencia.
The Spanish economy is especially volatile with regards to other European neighbours - tends to fall more during the crisis and raise more at bonanza-, with that debt also experienced strong swings. In addition, as Andrew, the ageing of the population indicates an increase in expenditure in the future due to commitments for pensions and health care costs. "We will leave this crisis with a debt of more than 90% of GDP", says the professor.
The question is if it will reach and even exceed the average of the eurozone. The gap between the two has not stopped narrowed since the beginning of the financial storm, which has led a nationalization on the part of private debts. In 2007, the ballast in Spain was nearly half of the European, 36% of GDP compared with 66%. At the end of the third quarter, far from only 13 percentage points: 77.4% versus 90%.
If the eurozone's debt is stabilized before and the Spanish still upward, the sorpasso is likely. "This year will not occur, but in 2015 it is possible that you get or even exceed it," says Antonio García Pascual, Barclays Chief Economist. Studies of this entity service estimated that Spanish debt will reach 91% of GDP in 2013 and 2015, while the eurozone will have already managed to stabilize its liabilities, according to these forecasts, the Spanish will be around 95%, which already could be above the average of the monetary union.
The good news is that this year could become the roof from which will again decrease, since that year Barclays expects a primary surplus (excluding interest on the debt) of 0.9% for the economy. For Emilio Ontiveros, President of international financial analysts (AFI), "take longer to recover economic growth possible is that convergence".
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